This crystal ball is pretty opaque
iPadHow people will read in the near-term future was the topic of the Internet Week Europe session, "Mobile: The Future of Publishing?" Clearly, the easy answer, at least in the English-speaking world, is "left to right."
But seriously, the future is mobile — plus. This we know, as Enders Mobile Analyst, Benedict Evans, pointed out with charts and graphs. The more imminent question for mobile publishers is, "which platforms will consumers choose?"
While the various iOS devices from Apple show revenues on a par with Android-powered devices, the fact is more Androids are shipping, due to their lower price point. (Evans' Enders graph showed this with colorful dots that looked like Tiddly Winks. Call it 'Enders' game'.)
Evans noted dryly, "there is some opacity around which platforms will take the lead next year."
Another question arises around how publishers will push content to consumers, through technologies like closed apps or HTML5.
To app or not to app?
Peter Buckley, Penguin Digital Publisher for Travel, which publishes the Rough Roads mobile guides, pointed out that it often depends on how and where the user wants to access the content. A big factor in a consumer's decision between an app and HTML5 is roaming charges. Currently, mobile content like travel guides is cheaper with a closed app than with always-on HTML5.
This may soon change, as we begin to see more 'hydrid' apps that use HTML5 along with native elements, noted Steve Pinches, FT Group Product Head of Emerging Technologies, Buckley's co-panelist and colleague at Pearson PLC (which owns both FT and Penguin). The Financial Times, of course, is one of publishing's big success stories, in both print and digital. Pinches pointed out that 15 percent of all Financial Times subscriptions are now coming through mobile.
Buckley and Pinches agreed that what's important to the consumer is not the platform or the device, but the content. And they want to be able to access that content wherever and whenever they want. "The idea a few years ago was that people on mobile only wanted short 'snacks' of content," said Pinches. "We've found that's not true."
"I just want to read the newspaper," he added. "I don't care about the device."
The caveat, said Buckley, is that "it's important to understand the value of original content." Penguin, publishes tabletop books and is unlikely to digitise them all because such gift items are valued for their beauty, sheer mass and "physicality."
The data will decide
Data is already playing an increasingly important role in how content will be delivered and consumed. "No book sends [its publisher] a letter saying that no one has read the index," said Buckley. "With apps, we can get feedback on every session."
During question and answer time, an attendee brought up the dark horse in the room that had gone so far unmentioned, the soon-to-be released Kindle Fire. The issue the panelists had with Kindle is that it can't figure out what it's trying to be, a Tablet or a gateway to the books and other products Amazon is hawking. This, said Evans, could cause "problems with brand perception."
If content is what matters, I'm not sure I bought that logic. If a device uses a familiar OS, has all the bells and whistles of competing devices, and costs less, why do we care whose name is on the box (Apple cultists aside)?
But then one member of the audience noted that the sophistication of the content people consume may affect their choice of platforms. "The Financial Times, is probably read on iOS," he said, "The Sun is read on Android."
So maybe they have a point.
-- Michael Mattis
